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Trouble in the Clark County Commercial Real Estate Market?

by Administrator on Jul 11, 2020 Market Conditions Articles 92 Views

If you have been following my commercial sales statistics on Clark County, Nevada, that includes Las Vegas and Henderson, you already understand that the number of $ 1 million and up closings, including vacant land sales, has dropped off by about 40%.  That is a huge decrease in the number of sales, and as of today July 11th it doesn’t appear that things are getting better.

The heaviest hit segment of the market is office buildings.  There were no office building sales in April, May and there likely will be few offices sold in June or July.  Let’s face it, people are not excited about returning to the office and employees forced to return who then become infected by COVID will not be an easy group to console. 

After many years working in an office I understand why people dislike them.  Travel to and from work every day in rush hour traffic costs more than gas, auto wear and tear and stress.  The fact is that there is a large portion of every workday that is lost commuting to and from an office, have you ever been compensated for that? 

What I find amazing is that it took a pandemic for many employers to figure out that having their employees working from home can be beneficial for both them and their employees.  There can be huge savings, much less money invested in office areas and much less time and auto-related expenses required of employees.  It is a net gain for both, so what is the downside?

The answer is easy, commercial office properties will end up taking a hit.  If you have one I’m sure the market will improve over time from its current near zero sales situation but the larger the office building is the more risk of loss there will be as tenants figure out that they can save a lot of cash by downsizing or simply not renewing their lease at all.

Building owners who cannot gracefully exit a property will find themselves in competition with other employers who have moved to home based employees.  If you don’t think that is a powerful benefit you need to sit down and figure out how much it costs an average employee in lost travel time, buying office clothing, paying for gas and paying for insurance.  It will not be easy for you to calculate the cost of the stress that employees must endure in their commute, because it is just too high.  Unless you are driving a tank never know which trip could be your last.

So the question for appraisers and owners is how much of a hit will sellers of office buildings have to accept to get their building sold?   It’s an easy question for appraisers, we just have to wait and see because the discount (if any) will be reflected in the recorded sales prices over time.  In the real world however it’s all about what the market will bear.  Buyers will demand concessions and sellers may or may not accept them.  It’s like the bid and ask prices on stock, you can bid low but you may never find someone who will sell at your bid price if there are others around who continue to pay more.

Other commercial market segments in Clark County, Nevada will improve or decline based in large part on their COVID impacts.  The hospitality segment is down by about 45% and that reduced income will be reflected in decreased NOI’s and lower asking prices.  Some marginal businesses simply will not reopen and there will likely be more supply than demand.  There is no reason to believe that there will be a crash, but I’m not a seer so I will wait and see like everyone else.

For more appraisal information contact Glenn J. Rigdon MA, MRICS, IFAS, ASA who is a Las Vegas / Henderson Nevada based broker and appraiser who can be contacted via email or via his business website known as Appraiser Las Vegas  (http://www.appraiserlasvegas.com), or http://www.horizonvillageappraisal.com, or you can also click on “Contact Us” on the home page of this website or visit my public profile at LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/pub/glenn-rigdon-ma-mrics-asa/1a/30b/879/

Article source: http://www.appraisalarticles.com/General-Appraisal-Articles/Market-Conditions-Articles/4760-Trouble-in-the-Clark-County-Commercial-Real-Estate-Market.html

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